TED日本語 - エディー・オベン: 目まぐるしく変化する世界には「賢い失敗」が必要だ

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TED日本語 - エディー・オベン: 目まぐるしく変化する世界には「賢い失敗」が必要だ

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目まぐるしく変化する世界には「賢い失敗」が必要だ
Smart failure for a fast-changing world
エディー・オベン
Eddie Obeng

内容

ビジネス教育者のエディー・オベンは、多くの人が思っているよりも、世界は速いスピードで変化していると言います。新しいことをしようと思っても、世界のスピードに追いつけません。 テンポの良い語り口でエディーは生産性を向上させるには、3つの重要な変化を理解すべきであること、「賢い失敗」を許す文化が求められていると語ります。

Script

Over the past six months, I've spent my time traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles, but without leaving my desk. And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people. I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here, and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start, if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff, so it's important that we focus on outcomes. And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself, "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience. It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make - -" So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right. So let's just walk our way through this. Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like. The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer? The answer is? Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same. No, they're not the same. (Laughter) They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one. So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school, about that big, they played the same trick on us? It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember? And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong. You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10,20,30,40 years: The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are, you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century. Somebody or something has changed the rules about how our world works. When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight, you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay? You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is, they switched all the rules round, so that the way to successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country, has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new - you think I'm joking, don't you - there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter) Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one. You probably - No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists. You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand. If you search Amazon for the word "creativity," you'll discover something like 90,000 books. If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity," you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter) Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money or delivering benefits two years after its inception. It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have, the visions of how we're going to change the world, the key thing is implementation. We have the vision. We've got to make it happen. We've spent decades professionalizing implementation. People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen. However, if I use as an example a family of five going on holiday, if you can imagine this, all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong, what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses. What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average real project, average real successful project, the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi, at a cost of 4,000 pounds, whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter) What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one. This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it. It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity and the number of bright minds," or something like that. This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England when she asked the question, "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter) I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter) That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is, these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO, he explains that design must get big, and he's right. He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking must tackle big systems for the challenges we have. He's absolutely right. And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?" Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool, is cross-functional working is so amazing, why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on? You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

What we do know is that the world has accelerated. Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light. Technology accelerates things exponentially. So if this is now, and that's the past, and we start thinking about change, you know, all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change, everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter) So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change. The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing. At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird. We've doubled the population in 40 years, put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact. The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing. There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing. And then we've done a third thing. you know, for those of you who have as an office a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs, no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet. What's happened is, we've changed the scale. Size and scale are no longer the same. And then add to that, every time you tweet, over a third of your followers follow from a country which is not your own.

Global is the new scale. We know that. And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that? And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor. It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember going to a demonstration where they basically, the demonstrator did something quite intriguing. What he did was, he got a transparent pipe - have you seen this demonstration before? - he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was, you had a situation where - I'll try and draw the tap and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard. Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter) Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on. And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe. I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me? So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great. And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe, and he connects this to a container, and he fills the container up with green ink. You with me? So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting. And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes. So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line. He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens. There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more, the whole of that green line disappears, and instead there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle. They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

What's happened in this world of pipe is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent. All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly, all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available, and it's not the same as laminar. And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

And I think this is our challenge, because somebody has actually increased - and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff - the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

Now how do we cope and deal with that? Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn. Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when there were actually these things called correct answers, because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle, and you believe it will last forever. So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning, and that's how we used to do it. We could see things, understand them, take the time to put them into practice. Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy, and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings. If you work in an institution,one day you will get them to make that decision. And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles, it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me? So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat. You with me? This point over here, the point at which the lines cross over, the pace of change overtakes the pace of learning, and for me, that is what I was describing when I was telling you about midnight.

So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do, many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it, the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future? If you haven't understood the world you're living in, it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas, I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation, so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!" But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air. Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because - Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world, over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable. If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated? Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience. So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20,30 years, are you with me? The answer is, don't do things which are different. And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work. You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world. One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing, you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired. On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before, you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated? Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed. It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk. When I realized the power of this new world, I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school, the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen, and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself. If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more, but I've applied them to myself for over a decade, and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is, I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives, so that when you go away and you're making your next absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think, "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much. (Applause) Thank you, thank you. (Applause)

ここ半年、色々な所を訪れました 旅した距離は9万キロ以上 しかも机から一歩も離れずに 実は私は二人いるのです 一人はここにいるエディー もう一人は 緑のごつい体型の 私の分身「サイバー・フランク」

これが旅をしていた理由です さてテストから始めましょうビジネス専門なので 結果が気になるんです 悩みましたよ TEDに来るような人たちに 何を学んでもらえるか 丁度良いレベルの話ができればいいのですが さあ 行ってみましょう 答えがわかったら叫んでくださいね 「どっちの線が長いですか?」 答えは? (聴衆)同じ(オーベン)同じ 違います(笑) 上のほうが10%長いんです なぜ同じと答えたのですか?子供の頃学校で 同じことを聞かれましたよね? 錯覚の勉強をした時です その時は「同じ」だったでも今回は違った 皆さんは一度習った答えを何十年も覚えているわけです 「長さは同じ 長さは同じ」ってね だからそう答えたでも問題が変わってたんです

この21世紀でも同様のことが起こっています 何者かがいつのまにか世界のルールを変えたんです ルールが変わったのは「真夜中」 皆が寝ていた頃です15年も前の話ですが 気付かなかったって?でも事実です 企業でも組織でも国でも何でも 上手く回すための方法がまるっきり変わったんです 冗談だと思っていますね(笑)でも新しいルールに気付きましたか? さっきの問題と同じですよ 気付かなかったね(笑)

僕の単純な考えは 21世紀は意外と理解しにくかった だから馴染みのある昔からの世界観で 皆 問題に対処しています でも もう昔の世界じゃない まだ疑っていますねいいでしょう(拍手)

じゃあ 私の数々の疑問を披露しましょう アマゾンで「創造性」と検索すると9万冊もの本がヒットします グーグルで「革新+創造性」は 3000万件+「コンサルタント」で6000万件です(笑) でも統計的に見て発想から2年後に アイデアが収益や実益に結びつく確率は 10万に1つくらいです おかしいですよ企業がお金と時間をかけて 計画や準備を進めたものが 世に出る前から時代遅れになります

なぜでしょう?革新的なビジョンも 実行することが 鍵となるのですビジョンは実現してこそです 私たちは長年実現力を磨いてきました その分 上手く行きそうなものです でも上手くいっていない家族旅行に例えてみましょう 5人家族が旅行をするとします ロンドンから香港までの長旅です しかし予算は50万円程度 これを実際にかかった費用の 平均相場と比較すると 家族はインドネシアまでしか行けません それでも60万円かかります しかも子供2人は置いてけぼり(笑) おかしいと思いませんか?

更にひどい例があります ここに手紙があります 「女王陛下 簡単にご説明しますと 危機の深刻さが予測できなかったのは 創造性、聡明な頭脳の不足が理由でした」 とかなんとか 書いてあります これは著名な経済学者たちが英国女王に宛てた謝罪文です 女王は学者にお聞きになりました 「なぜ あなた方は危機を予測できずにいたの?」 こんなもの真似をしていたらナイトの称号はもらえないな(笑) それはどうでも良いとして 超優秀な経済学者でも失敗する 難しいのが分かりますね(笑)

デザイン・コンサルタント会社IDEOのティム・ブラウンは 「デザインはもっと色々な分野に広がるべきだ」 より大きな問題に デザイン思考で取り組むべきだと言います まさにその通りです では何故今までの思考は小さかったのか? コラボレーションは素晴らしい部門間協力は素晴らしい では何故ヒエラルキー制が残ってるんでしょう きっと私たちは冒頭に述べたような 変化に気付いていないのです

世界は加速しています インターネットが全てを光速で動かし 技術が物事を急激に加速させる 現在はこここちらが過去 そして皆さんも政府もみんなが変化を求めている みんな変化を望んでいるすごいね!(笑) その結果 世界は急速に加速し変化していきます 加速しているだけじゃありません 同時に奇妙なことが起きました まず人口が40年で2倍になりました その半分が都市に住み互いに繋がっています 情報交流の密度は驚くばかりです 情報交通を示す図の密度の濃さと言ったら驚きです もう一つ あなたのオフィスが階段の下の 小さなデスクだったとしてもインターネットがあれば そこはグローバル企業の本社なのです スケールが変わったんです サイズとスケールはもう同じじゃない ツイッターのフォロワーだって 3分の1は国外の人です

新しいスケールはグローバルです 「激動の時代」とかなんとか 言われるわけです 比喩のように使われていますよね?でも実際に

激動しているのです 私が大学の工学部にいた頃 講義で非常に面白い実験デモが行われました 講師は透明なパイプを取り出し 水道の蛇口にとりつけました 絵にしてみましょう 蛇口は描けないから「蛇口」でいいね?(笑) 蛇口を開けるとパイプに水が流れ始めます 彼は言うわけです「何か気付いたかい?」 何も面白くないですよね 水が貯まったところで水量を減らしました 「何か気付いたかい?」 答えはノーですすると彼は針をパイプに突き刺して 針から緑のインクを少しずつ垂らし始めました すると 緑の細い線が流れ始めました でも大して面白くありません 水の量を少し増やしても何の変化もありません 流水量が変わっても緑の線はそのままです 彼はどんどん蛇口を緩めていきました すると突然緑の線がユラッと動き 蛇口をかすかに緩めると線が一瞬にして消え 針の周りに緑のもやもやが残り インクは散っていきました 色が薄くなって 最後には緑が消えました

パイプの中で起こったのは ルールの変化です誰かが流れを乱した結果 元のルールは全て一瞬にして消え 乱流によるあらゆる可能性が生まれました 状況が完全に変わったのです でも緑のインクがなければ変化には気付けません

これが私たちの課題です 私たちの世界でも技術の進歩でスピードやスケール 繋がりの密度が増したからです

この変化にどう対応すればいいんでしょう? 「激動」と名前をつけても良し挑戦して学ぶも良しです ただ私たちが今まで育ってきたのは 「正しい答え」のある世界です 最初のクイズの解答のように それが永遠に続くと信じてきました この線は学習を表しています 今までの私たちは ものを見て 理解しその後じっくり実行してきました この部分を私たちの住む世界とします 世界が加速的に変わりましたが学習のペースはどうでしょう 会社で働いていると上司の意向に沿わない 計画外のことなどできません でも月例会議などの場で いつか上司を説得することができるかもしれません でも好不調の波がある市場だったら ひどいことになります かなり状況が悪くなるまで何かがおかしいと気づきません つまり学習のペースはこの平らな線 とても遅くなります そして2つの線が交差するポイントで 世界があなたを追い抜きます その瞬間を 私は「真夜中」と呼んでいるのです

それがどう私たちに関係するのでしょうか? 私たちのなすべきことはすっかり変わったのです 未来のことを考えずに今の問題を解決しても仕方ありません この世界を正しく理解しなければ やる事が将来役に立つかなんて確信が持てません

ひとつ例を挙げましょう 私に相談に来る 会社のトップは革新を求めています 部下に言うわけです「リスクを取れ 創造しろ!」 でも不幸なことに 部下には違って聞こえるんです 「変なことをしてみろ クビだぞ」ってね(笑) なぜでしょう?なぜなら古い世界では 間違いは許されなかったからです 一度間違ったらおしまいです 経験者の知恵を借りるのが善だったのです そしてその教えを20年30年と大事に守ってきた 「変わったことをしてはならない」 突然 命令を変えても上手く行きません 新しい世界では 2パターンの失敗がありえます その一 やり方が決まっているものの場合 いい加減にやって失敗したら? 結果はクビです その二 全く新しいことに挑戦して 失敗したその場合は? ピザでお祝いです!成功者より評価されるべきです これは「賢い失敗」です成功と違い 履歴書には書けませんから

最後に私がどうして 9万キロに及ぶ旅をしたかお話します 私は新しい世界に気付いたとき 安定した教職を辞め ネット上世界初の ビジネススクールを創りました どうすれば 新しいことができるか他の人にも教えています 興味があればworldaftermidnight.comへどうぞ 私自身 この新しいやり方でここ十年やってきました ご覧の通り 健在です家も まだきちんとあります 今日は 皆さんの人生に 緑のインクを少しでも注入できた事を願っています 今度重要な決断を下すときに考えてみてください 「 真夜中過ぎ」の新しい世界でも やろうとしている事の意味があるのかどうか (拍手) ありがとう(拍手)

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